Since last Thursday, when former president and presumptive Republican nominee Donald Trump was handed a guilty verdict in the hush-money case in New York, the presidential race has intensified and is expected to become even more controversial in the coming period as we near the first presidential debate scheduled for June 27, hosted by CNN. Trump has received a huge financial boost since the conviction, but the Biden campaign has already started their pre-made plan to attack Trump on every single occasion, labeling him a “convicted felon.”
The battleground states
Experts agree that the key battleground states will determine the outcome of the November general election, prompting both candidates to concentrate on these states in less than five months. Trump currently leads the race both nationally and in the swing states, but things might take a sudden turn after the guilty verdict, as some early polls show that Trump is losing support among voters. Meanwhile, there is an evident shift in voters in some other states, including Virginia, where Trump is gaining momentum, resulting in growing concerns for Biden’s campaign.
Tied race
Speculation is increasing that former President Donald Trump might challenge President Joe Biden in Virginia, a state that has favored Democrats since 2008. A recent survey showed Biden and Trump each with 42% support in a direct matchup in Virginia, and Biden holds a slight 2-point lead when third-party candidates are considered. However, Biden’s current lead in Virginia is narrower compared to his position in the 2020 polls against Trump.
Waning support
In the 2020 election, Biden achieved the largest victory margin for a Democrat in Virginia since 1944, a record set during the era of Franklin Delano Roosevelt starting with his election in 1932 and through his subsequent re-elections. Virginia has consistently voted Democratic since Barack Obama won the state in 2008, a shift from its previous Republican preference that lasted until Lyndon B. Johnson’s victory in 1964.
Trump’s campaign dreams of winning the state after long time
Despite losing to Biden in Virginia four years ago, his campaign is confident he can change the narrative in the state.
“Joe Biden is so weak, and Democrats are in such disarray, that not only is President Trump dominating in every traditional battleground state, but longtime blue states such as Minnesota, Virginia, and New Jersey are now in play,” Trump campaign spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt said . “President Trump is on offense with a winning message and growing his movement every single day. Joe Biden’s campaign should be terrified.”
Virginia GOP Gov. Glenn Youngkin plays significant role
Since President Biden’s significant victory over Trump, Virginia elected Governor Glenn Youngkin, a Republican seen as more moderate than Trump. Youngkin won the governorship from Democrat Terry McAuliffe by a narrow margin of about 2 points. His victory was helped by strong Republican turnout in GOP-leaning counties and weaker Democratic participation. Recent polling in February indicated that 53% of Virginians approve of Youngkin’s performance, even as he has moved further to the right after taking office, including a closer alignment with Trump than during his campaign.
Although it seems unlikely, Virginia’s 13 electoral votes could be crucial if Trump were to secure a win. The Cook Political Report categorizes Virginia’s presidential race as “Solid D,” suggesting it is not typically a battleground state.
Despite the odds, the possibility that Trump could perform well in Virginia is causing concern for Biden’s campaign.
What are experts saying
“Biden is certainly not doing as well as he did in 2020, when he won Virginia by 10 percent. But he’s probably ahead by a few points at this time,” said Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia Center for Politics, in an interview with The Hill.
“If Virginia is even competitive in the fall, it’s a very bad sign for Biden since Virginia is more Democratic than many of the true swing states.”
