With activities including a joint rally earlier this week, President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris are actively trying to connect with Black voters across the country, including Pennsylvania. This week’s event focused on legislative measures meant to help the Black community, such as reducing insulin costs for seniors and preventing gun violence. Biden once again noted the important role Black voters played in his 2020 presidency and asked for their support in order to beat Donald Trump once more in November.
Black voters concerned
Black voters are becoming more concerned about Biden’s capacity to adequately meet their demands in spite of these initiatives. Trump’s campaign is making inroads with this demographic, potentially eroding Biden’s previous support. Speaking at significant Black institutions, such as the one in Georgia recently, Biden promotes the administration’s commitment to reaching Black voters. Local perspectives, such as those of state legislator Napoleon Nelson, highlight the need for quick and significant reforms to improve the quality of life in black neighborhoods, and that significant action is now more than ever required to sustain voter participation and support.
Trump gaining traction
The black voters’ group is expected to have a significant role in deciding the next president. Trump recently shared a video on Instagram from CNN claiming that Trump, as a Republican, currently has the highest support in the history of the country among Black voters. This has caused concern within Biden’s team, as Black voters significantly contributed to Biden’s victory over then-President Donald Trump in 2020. Black voters are the most concerned about skyrocketing inflation and everything becoming more expensive, and they remain uncertain if the Biden administration is capable of addressing the issues properly.
Surveys show Trump’s huge lead
New data from AdImpact show that $71.3 million has been spent on campaign ads for the 2024 election so far. Democrats have spent $49.2 million compared to $22.1 by Republicans. More interesting still is that 30% of the total spending has targeted voters in Pennsylvania.
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While the Keystone State remains very much in the toss-up column, it is slowly trending toward former President Donald Trump, who leads President Joe Biden by 2.3 points in the RealClearPolitics average of polls in the state. Trump’s lead was bolstered last week by a poll from Cook Political Report that showed him up by 3 points.
Consistency
Apart from a few occasions, including a single day in February when Biden briefly led by 1.4 points, Trump has consistently maintained a slight lead in Pennsylvania, as recorded by RealClearPolitics. If we eliminate the data from the more liberal-leaning pollster Susquehanna, even these brief moments of Biden leading would disappear. The Biden campaign is notably alarmed by the Pennsylvania results, and understandably so—the state is pivotal in determining the outcome of the presidential election.
If Trump retains the states he won in 2020 and secures victories in key battleground states where he is currently leading—like Arizona (by 4.1 points), Georgia (by 4.0 points), and Nevada (by 5.3 points) according to the RealClearPolitics averages—and wins Pennsylvania, he is poised to reclaim the presidency.
If Trump does not secure Pennsylvania, he needs to clinch a victory in either Michigan, Wisconsin, or Minnesota to compensate. Currently, he is slightly ahead in Michigan by 1.1 points and just barely in Wisconsin by 0.1 points, but he is behind Biden by 2.3 points in Minnesota. Trump’s overall lead, both in Pennsylvania and nationally, has been reinforced by the publicity from his hush money trial in New York. Additionally, recent polls indicate his support is increasing among two crucial groups: young voters and nonwhite voters, who are increasingly moving away from Biden’s campaign.
Young people and Black voters support wanes
For instance, a recent survey revealed a significant drop in support for Biden, nicknamed “Scranton Joe,” among young Pennsylvanian voters—from 62% in 2020 to 47% currently. Similarly, his support among Black and Hispanic voters in the state has declined from 71% to 57% over the same timeframe. With the election just five months away, and early voting starting even sooner, Biden is under pressure to quickly regain ground.
This urgency is probably why he has proposed two debates with Trump.
