As the Republican primary contest advances, it’s increasingly clear that Trump is poised to secure the Republican nomination with little to no significant opposition, including from Nikki Haley who remains in contention. Recent polling data indicates Trump’s lead over Haley across all states set to cast their votes in March, including California (83% to 16%), Florida (85% to 14%), and Texas (84% to 15%). Later this month, Haley will go head-to-head with Trump in South Carolina, her home state, yet her prospects of overcoming him appear slim.
In South Carolina, where the next vote for the 2024 Republican presidential nominee is happening, there’s not much public polling. But for those hoping Nikki Haley might beat Donald Trump in her own state, the chances seem slim. Recent polls, including one by Morning Consult, show Trump way ahead. He’s got 68% of the vote compared to Haley’s 31% for the primary happening on February 24. This matches up with another poll from last week by the Washington Post and Monmouth, which had Trump leading but by a bit less, 58% to 32%.
Haley, who was the governor of South Carolina for six years, is only getting about a third of the votes from people who might vote in the GOP primary. That’s the highest she’s gotten in any South Carolina poll this election cycle. It’s tough for her, especially since she’s mostly counting on votes from Democrats to try and win. Also, losing badly in a Nevada primary where Trump wasn’t even competing doesn’t help her team feel any better.
Trump leads Haley in every upcoming state including California, Texas and Florida
The recent survey results from Morning Consult show that in the upcoming primaries after South Carolina, Trump is far ahead in several states. On Super Tuesday, March 5, he’s leading with big numbers in eight states: 87% to 12% in Alabama, 83% to 16% in California, 69% to 28% in Massachusetts, 77% to 23% in North Carolina, 88% to 11% in Oklahoma, 81% to 18% in Tennessee, 84% to 15% in Texas, and 78% to 19% in Virginia. In Massachusetts, which is Haley’s strongest Super Tuesday state, she’s behind by 41 points.
The gap widens even more after Super Tuesday. Without listing every state, Trump’s advantage is significant in large states that vote in March and April. For instance, in Georgia on March 12, he leads 83% to 17%. In Florida on March 19, where the winner takes all the delegates, Trump’s ahead 85% to 14%. On the same day, he leads 78% to 20% in Illinois and 83% to 16% in Ohio. This trend continues into April, with Trump leading 84% to 15% in New York on April 2.
The outlook doesn’t look good for Haley
Trump is leading strongly in both types of primaries: the ones where only Republicans can vote, like in Florida and New York, and the ones where anyone, including Democrats and independents, can vote, like in Georgia, Ohio, and Texas. His popularity doesn’t vary much by region, although he’s particularly popular in the South, where Haley is from. For Haley, who used to work with Trump, the outlook doesn’t look good.
here’s a slight chance things could turn around if she unexpectedly wins in South Carolina, and then there’s Michigan’s primary on February 27, which goes against Republican National Committee rules. Because of this, most of the state’s GOP delegates will be chosen on March 2. But even there, Trump was way ahead in the last poll.
Haley might keep trying, hoping for a major upset or a legal issue to derail Trump’s campaign. However, the upcoming primaries are likely to choose delegates loyal to Trump, making it very unlikely that Haley, whom Trump dismissively calls “birdbrain,” will get the Republican nomination for president. She should probably start thinking about what she wants to do next in her career.
