The third week of Trump’s trial in New York, taking place in the midst of the presidential campaign, is the focus of the American public. In the New York hush money case, Trump is charged with 34 counts of falsifying business records. This is one of four cases in which Trump is facing criminal charges. Meanwhile, the campaigns of President Biden and former President Trump aim to secure the backing of American voters, particularly in the crucial battleground states where Trump currently holds a lead over Biden.
Current numbers
Based on the aggregated results of 677 polls, Trump has a 0.9% lead over Biden nationwide. Although this is considered insignificant with more than six months until the November general election, millions of Americans are surprised by the fact that Trump could potentially win the presidential election despite facing tens of charges in criminal cases in four states. For months, Trump’s legal team has been making huge efforts to delay the start of the trials in these cases, and it appears that they could succeed. The exception could only remain in the New York hush money case, which, according to experts, is the “weakest” of all cases.
The strategy
Democrats and Biden believe that Trump could lose significant support among American voters, especially in swing states where Biden trails Trump. Political experts are confident that voters in the swing states of Arizona, Nevada, Michigan, North Carolina, Georgia, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania will determine the country’s next four-year leader, which is why both campaigns will heavily target these states in the coming months. However, President Joe Biden just learned the awful truth about the potential conviction of former President Donald Trump in the New York hush money case.
The New York trial benefits Trump
In a recent poll, voters in seven key swing states indicated that a guilty verdict for former President Donald Trump in his New York trial wouldn’t change their support for him in the upcoming election.
The survey, conducted by Emerson College and The Hill, revealed that in states like Arizona, Pennsylvania, and Michigan, 71% of voters stated that a conviction would either not affect their choice or would make them more inclined to support Trump in 2024. Similar sentiments were echoed in North Carolina (73%), Wisconsin (72%), Georgia (70%), and Nevada (67%). Conversely, only 27% to 33% of voters in these states said a conviction would make them less likely to vote for Trump.
No impact on independent voters
The same survey also highlighted that a significant portion of independent voters in these states, ranging from 42% to 47%, felt that a conviction would have no impact on their support for Trump.
Additionally, national polls reflect skepticism about the trial’s impartiality. A CNN/SSRS poll found that a majority of Americans doubt that the jury in the New York trial can deliver a fair verdict. Another poll by AP/NORC released on April 16 showed that only 35% of Americans believe Trump’s actions related to the charges were illegal.
Additional findings
The Emerson College/The Hill poll revealed that Donald Trump is ahead of Joe Biden in hypothetical matchups in several key swing states. In North Carolina, Trump leads by five points; in Arizona by four points; in Georgia by three points; in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin by two points; and in Michigan and Nevada by one point each. When independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is added to the mix, Trump’s lead increases in Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, but stays the same in Arizona and Michigan.
This survey involved 1,000 registered voters from each of the seven swing states and was conducted from April 25 to April 29. The results have a margin of error of plus or minus 3%.
Read also: Legal analyst on Trump New York trial: “Influencing an election is not a crime”
Trump’s campaign reaction
“As this witch-hunt continues, President Trump’s support from Americans of all backgrounds will continue to grow as they watch Joe Biden and the Democrats put on this bogus show trial six months before the election while inflation and gas prices increase, the world is at war, our border remains wide open, and antisemitic protests rage on our college campuses,” Karoline Leavitt, national press secretary for the Trump campaign, told the Daily Caller News Foundation. “In the end, justice will prevail, President Trump will win, and he will make America great again.”
