As the Democratic and Republican primary races unfold, a myriad of surveys from various sources using diverse methodologies indicate mixed outcomes regarding the frontrunner for this year’s Presidential election. Despite Donald Trump securing widespread support among Republican voters, positioning him as the likely GOP candidate to challenge President Joe Biden once again, Nikki Haley remains a contender.
In the quest for endorsements from voters, entities, and influential figures across the country, a recent NBC survey reveals Trump ahead of Biden with a significant margin, marking his strongest lead to date. The results of the poll were presented on Sunday and it clearly shows that voters gave Biden poor marks across the board.
Trump scores the largest lead yet against President Biden
Trump, 77, has achieved a 47% to 42% lead over Biden, 81, with registered voters, an improvement from his previous 46% to 44% lead in a November NBC poll. Over the past five years, NBC has produced numerous polls comparing Trump and Biden, with Biden generally maintaining a lead, but that started to shift last year.
“This is the biggest lead NBC has ever had in 16 polls for Donald Trump over Joe Biden,” NBC’s political correspondent Steve Kornacki told “Meet the Press” on Sunday.
Last July, Biden touted a 49% to 45% lead over Trump, but by September they were dead even at 46%. Then in November, Trump jumped ahead. The latest poll sampled 1,000 registered voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points and was taken from Jan. 26 to 30.
When more candidates were included, Trump’s lead grew to six points, beating Biden 41% to 35%. A Libertarian candidate got 5%, the Green Party also received 5%, and No Labels got 4%.
Things are not looking positive for Biden
The survey didn’t check opinions on environmental lawyer Robert F. Kennedy Jr. or Cornel West, who’s running as an independent. In this poll, former US ambassador to the UN, Gov. Nikki Haley, was ahead of Biden with a score of 45% to 36%. Biden’s team didn’t say anything about this poll when NBC asked for comment. But Matt Barreto, who worked on polls for Biden’s 2020 campaign, pointed out some issues with how the poll was done, according to The Post.
“It over-represents white voters and conservatives and under-represents Democrats and Latinos. It’s critical to point out a poll’s shortcomings, just as much as its findings, before pundits jump to conclusions about the state of the race — especially when it appears as an outlier when placed in the context of other polls,” he said. “We know that 2024 will be extremely close and we also know pre-election polls will be all over the place.”
Trump destroys Nikki Haley among Republican voters
In a separate part of the poll, Republican voters clearly preferred Trump over Haley in the GOP primary, with Trump getting 79% of the votes to Haley’s 19%.
The same NBC poll found some worrying trends for Biden if he faces Trump again on November 5. Only 37% approve of Biden’s work as president, while 60% disapprove. This is the lowest approval rating NBC has seen since the time of former President George W. Bush.
In a head-to-head matchup in the poll, Biden got 41% of the Latino vote, slightly less than Trump’s 42%. Among young voters aged 18-34, Biden is ahead with 38% compared to Trump’s 26%. Even with low unemployment and reduced inflation under Biden, 55% of those surveyed trust Trump more with the economy over Biden’s 33%. And by 21 points, people believe Trump is more fit in terms of mental and physical health to be president than Biden.
However, Biden does have the upper hand on certain issues. He is more trusted to protect democracy, leading Trump 43% to 41%, and on abortion, he leads by 12 points. Despite these challenging polls, Biden’s team remains optimistic, pointing to the Democratic Party’s strong performance in the 2022 midterms and victories in various 2023 races.
Trump sports a 46.7% to 44.6% lead over Biden in the most recent RealClearPolitics aggregate of polling .
The 45th president is also generally ahead of Biden in most of the RCP aggregates for battleground states, which will ultimately determine the outcome of the election.
Since Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis suspended his bid and decided to focus on his Florida-Governor duties, like helping Texas secure the border, former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley has been the only serious candidate to challenge Trump in GOP primaries. Trump is expected to easily win the Republican nomination.
As expected, U.S. President Joe Biden won the first Democratic primaries in South Carolina this past weekend. Neither Dean Phillips, the congressman from Minnesota, nor author Marianne Williamson received at least 15% of the statewide vote or 15% of the vote in any congressional district, the threshold necessary to win delegates.
Republican primaries in S.C. are set to take place in three weeks, on February 24.