HomeNationalTrump campaign faces huge problem in one key swing state: Pennsylvania

Trump campaign faces huge problem in one key swing state: Pennsylvania

As the November general election approaches, the race between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump is heating up. Both Trump and Biden campaigns have put their efforts into raising money recently. Trump’s team on Saturday hit a new record high by collecting over $50 million in just one day at an event in Florida. Not to be outdone, Biden’s team also had a big win, bringing in more than $26 million at a New York event a few days before Trump’s big haul.

Critical issues

The campaign battlegrounds are defined by key issues such as the economy, foreign policy, abortion rights, and the crisis of illegal immigration. The latter has become a focal point, with millions of Americans expressing growing concern. Trump has capitalized on this issue, criticizing President Biden and his administration for their handling of immigration and claiming that their policies have allowed millions of migrants to enter the country over the past three years. These attacks have seemingly benefited Trump, giving him a narrow lead since January.

Key states

In critical battleground states, recent polls indicated that Trump had an edge over Biden in Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan, North Carolina, Nevada, and Wisconsin. According to a recent Bloomberg News and Morning Consult poll, more voters in these states appear to favor Trump, driven by concerns over Biden’s age and perceived risks associated with Trump’s candidacy. Per the poll, 48% of voters in these states supported Trump, compared to 43% for Biden. However, things are changing, at least in Pennsylvania.

Pennsylvania poll shows concerning numbers for Trump

In a recent poll conducted by Franklin & Marshall College and released last week, President Biden is ahead of former President Trump by 10 points in a potential rematch for the 2024 general election among registered voters in Pennsylvania. The poll shows that 48 percent of those asked said they would vote for Biden, while 38 percent favored Trump. There’s also a group, making up 13 percent, who would prefer to vote for another candidate, and 1 percent are still undecided about their choice.

Read also: California faces unexpected problem with illegal immigrants. Taxpayers paying the bill, again.

Biden had 1-point lead in February

This represents a significant increase in Biden’s lead over Trump from an earlier Franklin & Marshall College survey in February 2024, where Biden was only ahead by a slim margin of 1 point, with 43 percent support compared to Trump’s 42 percent. In that survey, 12 percent of voters were leaning towards another candidate, and 2 percent hadn’t made up their mind. The presence of third-party and independent candidates seems to be affecting Biden’s lead in Pennsylvania, according to the poll’s findings.

President Biden is ahead of former President Trump by 10 points in a potential rematch among registered voters in Pennsylvania
Donald Trump, credit: Donald Trump Campaign

Other candidates to make a difference

When Pennsylvania voters were given more choices, including Biden, Trump, Green Party’s Jill Stein, and independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr., the preferences shifted. Biden led with 42 percent of the vote, Trump was close behind with 40 percent, Kennedy grabbed 9 percent, and Stein got 3 percent. Additionally, 4 percent of voters said they’d rather support someone else, and another 4 percent were undecided.

Trump won Pennsylvania in 2016, Biden in 2020

Trump’s victory in Pennsylvania during the 2016 election and Biden’s win in 2020 show the state’s pivotal role in presidential races. Pennsylvania had consistently voted for Democratic presidential candidates until 2016, when Trump narrowly won the state by less than 50,000 votes. Biden reclaimed the state for the Democrats in 2020, but only by a small margin of 1 percentage point. The rising popularity of third-party candidates is causing concern among Democrats, who fear these candidates might draw more support from Biden than from Trump.

Read also: California Democratic Rep. Adam Schiff fears of Trump winning the presidential race

The poll, which was conducted from March 20 to 31, has a margin of error of 4 percentage points. However, for the head-to-head matchup questions, the margin of error increases to 5.7 percentage points.

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