Since the start of the presidential campaign, Trump has been leading Biden in a potential presidential election rematch. In the past few weeks, several polls have shown that Biden is making gains on Donald Trump in a number of states, including the battleground states. The Hill data, which is based on 658 polls conducted in recent months, indicates a tie in the race between Biden and Trump, with both receiving 45.1% of the votes. With just months away from the November general election, the current results mean that America will once again witness a super-competitive presidential race.
The battleground states
Experts expect the battleground states to once again play a decisive role in the presidential race. Despite Trump leading Biden in most of them for an extended period of time, things are changing quickly in favor of the incumbent. Trump has had a solid lead over Biden in Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan, North Carolina, and Nevada. Among all swing states, Biden has had a lead over Trump only in Wisconsin. Although too early for conclusions, a recent report shows that Trump might face a bigger-than-expected problem in Arizona, a state where Republicans no longer support conspiracy-minded candidates.
Conspiracy theories
In the 2020 presidential election, Fox News announced that Joe Biden had won Arizona before other outlets, which upset Donald Trump and his followers. They argued the election was rigged. In 2022, when Kari Lake, a Trump supporter running for governor, lost to Democrat Katie Hobbs, who was the secretary of state at the time, she made similar accusations. However, not everyone believed these claims. Three retired election analysts, with extensive experience and different political affiliations (Democrat, Republican, and independent), provided a clear explanation based on their analysis of voting patterns in Phoenix and Tucson. They discovered that many voters chose Republican candidates for most positions but did not support Trump.
Trump’s Arizona problem explained
These analysts continued their work, reviewing the results from Arizona’s 2022 election and the 2024 presidential primaries. Their research showed an increase in Republican voters who are distancing themselves from candidates who promote conspiracy theories. This shift resulted in more Republicans voting for Democrats, contributing to Democratic wins in these races.
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“The result indicates growing disenchantment and a significant uptick in voter disgust manifested by a surge in cross-party voting,” wrote Larry Moore, lead author and the retired founder and CEO of Clear Ballot, a federally certified firm specializing in auditing every vote cast. “The findings suggest a challenging landscape for MAGA-aligned candidates in 2024.”
Voters are tired of stolen election conspiracies
With scores of 2024 federal and statewide candidates who still claim that Trump did not lose in 2020, their Arizona analysis – in a key battleground state with outsized influence – suggests that the public is tiring of stolen election conspiracies. It also highlights a trend of voters choosing candidates from both parties, a pattern that might become more apparent in the upcoming elections as Trump and other Republican candidates continue to criticize the electoral process while Trump also deals with legal issues.
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The findings
“The Republican base eroded from 2020 to 2022 as a growing number of voters cast their ballots for Republican candidates down-ballot but not for the top of the ticket,” their report said. “More troubling for Republicans, an increasing number of voters didn’t simply skip the top of the ticket or cast protest votes for write-ins or third-party candidates but voted Democratic while supporting Republican candidates for lower office.”
“These [cross-over] voters gave victories to Joe Biden over Donald Trump (0.31%), Mark Kelly over Blake Masters (5%), Katie Hobbs over Kari Lake (0.7%), Adrian Fontes over Mark Finchem (4.8%) and Kris Mayes over Abe Hamadeh (0.01%) in races for President, U.S. Senate, Governor, Secretary of State, and Attorney General,” it continued.
21% of Arizona Republican voters did not vote for Trump
“In the Arizona primary on March 19, 2024, two weeks after Nikki Haley suspended her campaign, 21% of voters in Arizona did not vote for Trump—a measure of disaffection with the presumptive nominee,” the report said. “By contrast, Biden’s Index of Disaffection in Democratic closed primaries is 13% – higher than in 2022 – but there is little indication that voters disaffected with Biden will vote for Trump.”
The research indicates that in the 2024 presidential election, many voters are likely to continue voting across party lines. This trend is expected as Trump and numerous GOP candidates, who share his approach, will appear on the ballot. Additionally, various surveys have shown that a significant number of Republicans may choose not to vote for Trump if he is found guilty in any of the legal cases he is currently involved in.
