Last weekend, Trump held a rally in Pennsylvania, one of the key battleground states that are expected to make a difference in the November general election. Both Trump and Biden are expected to hold dozens of events in the coming months in key swing states, including Pennsylvania, Michigan, Georgia, Nevada, Arizona, North Carolina, and Wisconsin. Recent polls show that Trump has a slight lead over Biden in these states, excluding Wisconsin, as both candidates are expected to focus on winning them.
The polls
For several months, Trump has been leading Biden in a potential general election rematch. According to The Hill data aggregated from 666 polls so far, Trump currently has a 0.3% lead over Biden. Although the lead has declined since the start of the year, Trump must be happy with the numbers, taking into consideration the fact that he is also facing several serious legal battles, including the one in New York, in which the trial started on Monday this week.
The battleground states
Biden leads Trump in Wisconsin but struggles to win the support of key voter groups in all the other swing states. These states were decisive in 2020, when Biden won the elections. Some important voter groups now favor Trump instead of Biden, but Democrats and their presidential candidate face another, somewhat unexpected problem in the name of Robert F. Kennedy Jr., the independent presidential candidate who is likely going to make it harder for President Biden to win in November.
The Michigan problem
Robert F. Kennedy Jr., running as an independent candidate for president, will appear on Michigan’s ballot this November. The Michigan Secretary of State’s Office confirmed to The Post on Thursday that Kennedy, alongside his vice-presidential pick Nicole Shanahan, has been officially nominated by the Natural Law Party. At 70 years old, Kennedy currently holds 13% of the vote in Michigan, based on a recent poll by Marketing Resource Group.
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Robert F. Kennedy Jr. likely to take some of Biden’s votes
In a detailed poll involving five candidates, former President Donald Trump led with 37%, followed by current President Joe Biden with 34%. Green Party’s Jill Stein received 2% of the vote, while independent Cornel West garnered 1%. The same poll highlighted Kennedy’s strong performance among independent voters, where he surpassed Biden to take second place with 22% of their votes, trailing Trump who received 33%. Among voters who expressed strong disapproval of both Trump and Biden, often labeled “double-haters,” Kennedy led with a significant 40% support, while Trump and Biden received 11% and 10% respectively in this group.
Celebrating the name on the ballot
“He’s the most qualified candidate in the modern-day history of America,” said Natural Law Party Chairman Doug Dern. “We welcome Mr. Kennedy and Ms. Shanahan to the party.”
“Kennedy is good for Michigan,” said Western Michigan Regional Coordinator Bill Costantino. “As an environmental champion for more than 40 years, Kennedy will work to restore our Great Lakes region, which holds 20% of the world’s freshwater. He will ensure a thriving fishing economy and ecosystem for commercial fishermen and individual anglers.”
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The broader picture
President Biden, who narrowly secured Michigan by less than 155,000 votes from over 5.5 million cast in 2020, faces challenges in maintaining the state’s 15 electoral votes. His difficulties increased after over 100,000 voters chose “uncommitted” in the February 27 Democratic primary, signaling dissatisfaction with his management of Middle Eastern affairs. Meanwhile, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is striving to secure a spot on the presidential ballots in all 50 states, a challenging endeavor due to the diverse requirements across different states. Kennedy’s campaign reports that he is already confirmed on Utah’s ballot and has gathered sufficient signatures to be listed in Hawaii, Idaho, Iowa, Nebraska, Nevada, New Hampshire, and North Carolina.
