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Huge blow for Biden, Dems in Texas: Trump has double-digit lead among Hispanic voters

Just like Trump recently said that he prepares heavy play to win New York, a heavily Democratic state for decades, Democrats and Joe Biden aim to do the same in Texas, where all eyes are on Democrat Colin Allred. Allred will challenge Republican Senator Ted Cruz, who has held the seat since 2013 and has recently won the state’s primary. In an effort to potentially get the support of some of the Republican voters in the state, Allred recently said that he is open to collaborating with every Republican who wants Cruz defeated.

A long shot

If winning in New York seems like a long shot for Trump, the same applies for Democrats and Biden in Texas. Without adequate federal help, the state had to secure the southern border from illegal immigration on its own. A recent poll shows that Ted Cruz has a huge lead over Democrat Allred. Despite the open support from Biden and the millions of dollars raised for the ongoing campaign, Allred will have a hard time threatening Cruz, who has enjoyed huge support among Texas voters over the years.

Biden is losing the war with Trump in key voter groups

In the key battleground state of Michigan, Biden is having a hard time winning the support of Black, Arab, and Muslim voters. This trend is also seen in other states and other key voter groups that backed Biden in 2020 and helped him beat Trump. In Texas, specifically, Biden lags far behind Trump among Hispanic voters ahead of the presidential election in November, the results of a recent survey show.

Solid lead with all candidates involved

The survey by the Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation (TxHPF) conducted from April 5 to April 10 showed that Donald Trump has a 4-point lead over Joe Biden among Hispanic voters, with Trump receiving 41% of their votes and Biden 37%. The poll included five candidates: Chase Oliver from the Libertarian Party, Jill Stein from the Green Party, and independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr. The support from Hispanic and Latino voters is seen as vital for the upcoming November elections, especially in key swing states like Florida, Arizona, and Nevada, where there are significant Latino populations. Even small shifts in voting patterns in these states could significantly affect the outcome.

Trump leads Biden among Hispanic voters in Texas, with things getting worse for Biden when people were asked to choose between the two
Credit: Joe Biden, X official

The broader picture

The poll details also noted that Trump’s lead among Hispanic voters is partly because he is favored by Hispanic Born-Again Christians, with 61% supporting him compared to 18% for Biden. The survey found that non-religious Hispanics are more likely to support Biden, who has 53% of their votes against Trump’s 15%. Trump also leads among Hispanics without a four-year college degree, garnering 43% of their votes, while Biden has 32%. However, among Hispanic voters with a four-year degree, Biden is slightly ahead with 43% compared to Trump’s 38%.

The bad news for Biden

Overall, the survey indicates that Trump has a substantial lead over Biden in Texas among all likely voters. He is ahead by 12 percentage points, receiving 46% of the vote compared to Biden’s 34%. Kennedy Jr. is only expected to receive 9% of the vote. Even if Kennedy Jr. were to withdraw from the race, Trump would still maintain a 12-point lead, with 48% of the vote to Biden’s 36%.

Additional findings

The survey results further indicate trouble for Biden, especially in his efforts to attract independents and moderate Republicans. Should Robert F. Kennedy Jr. exit the race, 26% of his supporters would likely vote for Trump, while 21% would lean towards Biden. Additionally, 17% would shift their support to candidates from minor parties, and 36% are still undecided on their choice.

This data comes from a survey of 1,600 likely voters in Texas, which was deemed representative. The survey has a general margin of error of +/- 2.45 percent. For the Hispanic segment of the sample, the margin of error increases to +/- 4.88 percent.

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