New York – The debate over Donald Trump’s political durability is no longer centered only on whether he can hold his base since prominent political figures from many states including California and New York are asking for support to remove him from office.
Trump’s political durability is increasingly tied to a sharper and more combustible question: how much public support he can lose before the political damage becomes impossible to ignore.
As criticism grows from Democrats, independents, and even some figures once associated with Trump’s own movement, the discussion around his standing has widened from polling weakness to concerns about his fitness and judgment.
That shift has made the current moment more volatile.
Calls to remove Trump through the Twenty-Fifth Amendment remain highly unlikely to succeed, since such a move would require action from Vice President JD Vance and a Cabinet widely seen as loyal to him.
Still, the fact that some former allies and right-wing commentators are now voicing doubts adds a striking dimension to the story.
Even if those efforts go nowhere, they show that concern about Trump is no longer coming only from the left.
For Trump, approval ratings have always carried outsized importance.
Since the start of his political rise more than a decade ago, they have served as a constant measure of his strength. Yet his numbers have followed a familiar pattern.
His approval has never climbed above 50 percent in office, but it has also rarely fallen below a certain floor. Through scandals, policy fights, and public backlash, his support has mostly stayed above 35 percent and often above 40 percent.
Now that floor is being tested again.
As Trump’s war on Iran drags on, several recent polls have shown his approval slipping to 35 percent or lower.
The conflict has been associated with stock market losses and rising gas prices, while broader dissatisfaction has hit one of Trump’s longtime political strengths: the economy.
A recent CNN poll found Americans giving him a record low approval rating for his handling of economic issues. His numbers on immigration, another key pillar of his 2024 victory, have also fallen noticeably from where they stood in January of last year.
Much of that movement appears to be driven by independents, especially those uneasy about Iran. But Republican loyalty continues to provide Trump with a cushion. Data journalist and pollster G. Elliott Morris has estimated that Trump’s approval floor is probably around 33 or 34 percent.
“The only reason Donald Trump’s approval rating is not 30 percent today is because of Republicans, because there’s such polarization,” said Morris, who also runs the Strength In Numbers newsletter on Substack.
That loyalty remains powerful.
A March poll by The Economist/YouGov found that people identifying as MAGA supporters had reached a new high of 25 percent, including 63 percent of Republicans. That helps explain why Trump can keep losing ground with independents without suffering a total collapse in support.
His first term followed a similar pattern. Trump’s average approval rating usually sat in the high 30s and low 40s, with the sharpest drop coming only after the January 6 attack on the Capitol. A Pew Research Center poll then found his approval at 29 percent, his lowest recorded point, after some Republicans briefly pulled away.
Tim Malloy of Quinnipiac University called Trump’s recent record low rating on the economy a “very big red flag,” especially because the issue has historically helped him. Even so, Malloy noted that Trump’s numbers have consistently “bounced around.” Quinnipiac has generally placed his approval between 35 and 45 percent across both terms, with his lowest readings at 33 percent and his highest at 46 percent in January 2025.
The political problem for Democrats is that Trump’s weakness does not automatically become their advantage. They are favored to retake the House and still have a chance in the Senate, but the margins are not overwhelming. A March Strength In Numbers/Verasight poll found Democrats ahead by only 6 points on the generic ballot.
Morris said much of Trump’s unpopularity comes from “soft disapprovers,” voters who dislike aspects of his presidency but still usually vote Republican. They may oppose the war with Iran, rising gas prices, or his immigration approach, yet still stop short of backing Democrats.
“What we know about American political psychology is that your partisan label is the most powerful predictor of how you vote, even when general conditions are turning against the president,” said Morris.
That may be the clearest answer to how low Trump’s approval rating can really go. It may fall further as economic pressure builds and criticism spreads. But unless Republican support truly cracks, the bottom is likely to remain somewhere in the low 30s rather than collapse altogether.
